Occam's Russia: A Simple Theory to Explain the Russia Investigation

Occam's Russia: A Simple Theory to Explain the Russia Investigation

A picture says a thousand words.

During the wee hours of the morning of Wednesday, November 9th, 2016, Donald J. Trump was horrified. Devastated. Perturbed. Despondent. His wife was crying. At a time when the normal emotions would be elation, relief, and celebration, the president-elect of the United States was absolutely disconsolate. The above picture shows him at the exact moment he was elected President of the United States.

Why did he react that way?

In the weeks that followed, reports would come out that Donald Trump didn’t want to win the election. That he wanted to become some sort of Obi-Wan Kenobi, more powerful in political death than he was in life. Trump envisioned himself working hand-in-hand with Roger Ailes to capitalize on his reinvigorated celebrity status. His daughter Ivanka would become an international celebrity. His closest campaign staff would be the newest Fox News hires, constantly bashing President Hillary Clinton. Trump himself would become a Republican rock star, someone who would play the eternal victim of having been cheated out the presidency had it not been for those lying, cheating Democrats. He could go back to his Twitter persona full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. All and all, it appeared to be a great deal for someone who knew all about great deals.

But something funny happened on the way to Trump TV.

Vladimir Putin happened. More importantly, Vladimir Putin happened to use Donald Trump as a willing stooge to advance his own agenda. We all know Putin’s endgame: to restore Russia to its past greatness. In Donald Trump, Putin found someone willing to advance his own interests. Trump is a moron with no policy knowledge but in his corner are a cabal of corrupt Republicans who are equally ambitious and equally ignorant. What better way to get them on board than to provide them with something they desire more than anything else: money. Putin simply planted a wily redhead plop in the middle of the NRA and overnight he had two hundred plus congressmen and women who were taking laundered Russian money directly into their bank accounts.

So Putin now has the candidate and the candidate’s party locked in. But he needed to try and damage the Democratic candidate. What better way to do this than to recruit minor political candidates to siphon away votes from the front-runner. Enter Jill Stein and Bernie Sanders. Stein would casually enter circles with both Vladimir Putin and Michael Flynn in 2015 and Sanders’ campaign adviser would casually have a history with Paul Manafort in the Ukraine. Between an insignificant third party candidate and a lowly senator, Putin now had two individuals with no loyalty to the Democratic Party who would be more than willing to spout off smears and propaganda against the front-runner in both the primary and general election. By recruiting both Sanders and Stein, Putin had two willing patsies who would do whatever it took to make money for themselves while simultaneously degrading a highly qualified Democratic candidate.

Third, Putin needed to take advantage of the ongoing rifts in American society. What better way to do that than wage targeted information warfare against those most susceptible to misinformation? Enter a team of Russians willing to travel to the United States and scout the political arena to analyze these divisions. Add in a British-based data mining company and American-based social media giants like Facebook and Twitter whose CEOs have no zero ethics and you have near-unlimited access to the voting habits of the American public. Knowing that, you can easily spread misinformation, create false groups and memes, and even organize in-person events that fervent participants are willing to attend. Use these targeted attacks to amplify discord and disunity among the Democratic Party and specifically use those attacks directly in swing states where a small percentage of voters could swing the state from one candidate to another.

Lastly, Putin needed a way to access and distribute confidential material. Enter Julian Assange, whose Wikileaks has and continues to be a front for the Russian GRU. Have Wikileaks hack both the DNC and RNC to gather incriminating evidence, or kompromat. Use the DNC hack at strategic points, including in the hours after what would be Donald Trump’s devastating Access Hollywood tape. Keep the RNC information handy in case any Republicans wanted to raise the alarm over what was happening. Use the hacked information to continue to amplify the disunity among the Democratic Party. Know full-well that the American media would be in overt click-bait mode and that it wouldn’t matter if they were reporting on stolen documents as long as it helped boost their ratings. Sit back and watch as the American media chomps at the bit and does everything in its power to create a horse race, including amplifying minor scandals with the Democratic nominee and ignoring major scandals with the Republican nominee.

All this is not conjecture. All this is known information as of January 2019. The gnawing question with all of this is why would Putin do it? Why go to all this trouble if, like Donald Trump, he knew he would lose?

My theory is this: Vladimir Putin knew he was going to win. You don’t plan a multi-year terrorist attack against the United States if the endgame is simply to change a few words in the Republican Party platform. Putin wanted more. He wanted to restore Russian greatness and the way to do that was to end the harsh sanctions imposed upon the country by the Obama Administration. Combine that with undermining the west through its longstanding alliances and Vladimir Putin had the first two steps in making Russia great again. Were he to do that, Putin would not only cripple the world’s sole remaining superpower but he also would create an environment where Russia could influence and potentially invade regions and countries he sees as being part of “true” Russia. Like any autocratic dictator, Putin wants to leave a legacy and for him that legacy is as the ultimate restorer of Russian greatness.

For my theory to hold true, Putin had to know he was going to win despite the fact that all the polls and analysis said this was a nearly impossible. Here, we run into the crux of Robert Mueller’s investigation. In order for Putin to ensure success, he would have had to know exactly which states would miraculously swung to Donald Trump in 2016, breaking up the Democrats’ supposed invincible “blue wall.” We saw Trump campaign vigorously in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin despite him being down significantly in the polls just a week before the election. Many at the time attributed this campaign decision to Trump trying to connect with the White working-class voters. But we now know that the election came down to 78,000 votes in those three states. What exactly did the Trump campaign know that nobody else did?

I firmly believe that when all is said and done, Robert Mueller will have uncovered that there was election hacking and vote altering. If true, this would be the greatest scandal in world history. We would have an official usurper in the Oval Office, a man installed by a foreign power through illegitimate means. We will have alienated our allies by false means. We will have removed ourselves from international agreements and commitments due to decisions being made by a fraudulent administration. We will have thousands of dead Puerto Ricans and hundreds of deported immigrants and asylum seekers due to the decisions of a false government. We will have two illegitimate Supreme Court justices. We will have the true president sitting at home despite having legally won the election. We will have 65.8 million people ready to riot in order to right a wrong. If you think Brexit is chaotic, imagine the realization that the United States of American has a treasonous president who was willingly installed by a hostile foreign power.

I don’t know what Robert Mueller has discovered. But in my heart of hearts, I don’t believe in coincidences. Deep down inside in a place that keeps me up at night, I have the unsettling belief in Occam’s Razor in that the simplest explanation is often the most correct. Based on everything I’ve seen and read, my theory remains the most basic explanation for what happened. If my theory is confirmed, the repercussions would be earth-shattering and would take us into uncharted territory. It would erode trust in the election process and our democracy. It would put the Republican Party on record as committing treason at an unparalleled level. It would tell the world that the United States is no better than a third-world nation and is a modern-day banana republic. Protests would dwarf the antiwar movement of the early 1970s. Trump supporters would take up arms. Trump himself may very well refuse to leave the Oval Office. In short, it would be the most trying time our nation will have ever seen and I hope and pray my theory turns out to be incorrect.

If it isn’t, we will be entering the scariest time in our nation’s history.

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