What they won't tell you: +827,000 private sector jobs in 2012

Of course, that's not something you're hearing in the media as every outlet trips over the other to deliver the "bad news" that "the economic recovery is stalling." For what it's worth, it's true that from the preliminary report from the Labor department, the economy was shown to add 130,000 private sector jobs (115,000 on net as 15,000 public sector jobs were lost), a smaller number than earlier in the year. On the other hand, the unemployment rate dropped to 8.1%, which is due to a drop in the labor force participation rate that tracks to the babyboomers continuing to retire at a high pace, and a slowdown in immigration.

But here is what you are not hearing from the media outlets: (a) the preliminary numbers are likely to be revised up, and the last two months' numbers have been revised up, (b) the unemployment rate has dropped a full percentage point since August, and (c) the economy added 827,000 private sector jobs since the beginning of this year.
Despite adverse shocks that have created headwinds for economic growth the economy has added private sector jobs for 26 straight months, for a total of 4.25 million payroll jobs over that period. With upward revisions of 65,000 jobs to the past two months’ employment reports, in the first quarter of 2012 private employment expanded by 697,000 jobs, the largest quarterly increase since the first quarter of 2006. So far this year, 827,000 private sector jobs have been added, on net.
In the mean time, the Republican House and Republican members of the Senate continue to block a centerpiece of the president's jobs proposal that will unquestionnably help these numbers: sending help to the states so that they do not have to lay off teachers, police and firefighters.

Are the month-to-month job growth numbers smaller right now than they were in the beginning of the year? Yes. Do Republicans in Congress need to get off their campaign horses and get on the ball? Yes. Will they do it? No.

Add to this the fact that despite economic headwinds facing the economy from Europe - which is re-entering recession thank to Republican-style austerity policies - the American economy is still showing surprising resilience, as consumer spending grows, small business startups are on the rise, and manufacturing growth is surpassing expectations. One must also account for the fact that employers typically recruit and hire new college graduates around this time of the year, but they are not actually added to the payroll until after they graduate and start on the job. All of those factors combined may well raise the numbers back up to a much faster pace soon.


A request: I usually don't ask, but this is important, given the slant the job numbers are taking in the media. If everyone who reads this and finds this valuable shares this in some way - Twitter, Facebook, Google Plus, email, what have you - we can expand the reach of this message by at least a little. Thanks.