Missouri lived up to its nickname

Missouri lived up to its nickname

Photo credit: Mark Goebel, ib1067.jpg, https://www.flickr.com/photos/sangre-la/2382568707, CC BY 2.0


Well, last night Missouri sure did show the nation that things are bubbling.

In Missouri House district 97, Democrat Mike Revis won a special election by 3 points.

"Big deal," a typical Berner might say. "If he had run on free college and Medicare for all, he would have won by 10!!"

Ahem. Donald Trump won that particular district in 2016 by 28 points. Thus, this was a 31 point swing away from Trump. But, as Vox points out, this wasn't even the biggest swing in Missouri last night.

That 31-point swing relative to the 2016 election was extraordinarily large, but actually not the greatest swing of the night. Over in House District 144, Democrats took a relatively narrow 53-47 loss in a district that Trump carried by 59 points. The other two GOP holds in Missouri also had large swings, with Democrats outperforming Hillary Clinton by 18 points in one race and by 25 points in another.

So, in the other district, Democrats turned what should have been a 59 point shellacking into a 6 point loss.

I know we're a bit concerned that the generic congressional ballot has tightened up. However, even the Weekly Standard has an article which shows that the numbers are pretty stable. In other words, the numbers taken anywhere from 270 to 310 days out from a midterm election generally predict the actual vote. Needless to say, those numbers aren't good for the GOP. (The article has links to number crunching which is fascinating.) So, in other words, tightening is to be expected, but is probably not predictive. The cake was baked; it just now needs to be served.

Of course, again, I'm not saying be complacent, yadda yadda yadda. But panic over fluctuating numbers does no one any good. The fact is that Trump is the least popular president of the past few decades. He has generated such an amount of animus that usually lackadaisical Democratic voters are actually taking notice and are enthusiastic about voting this November. Hell, they're not even waiting until November, flipping a blood-red seat in Wisconsin before last night's result in Missouri. (And of course, this isn't even counting Doug Jones or the Virginia gubernatorial contest.)

Victory favors the bold and the prepared. Both qualities will be needed in large supply for the rest of this year. If you feel panic, channel that negative energy into positive action. It's really the only thing which will make a difference come November.

 



Like what you read? Chip in, keep us going.


Devumi and Me: Bernie Sanders' Unexplained Connection to a Shady Media Company

Devumi and Me: Bernie Sanders' Unexplained Connection to a Shady Media Company

Call me a crazy old conspiracy nut

Call me a crazy old conspiracy nut

0