Election Night Observations and Feeling the Votes: Clinton Finishes First, Sanders Places Behind Trump

Election Night Observations and Feeling the Votes: Clinton Finishes First, Sanders Places Behind Trump

Photo by Gage Skidmore. License: Wikimedia.

Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump came out of tonight as their respective party's presumptive nominees. But while the media has been talking about "negatives", Clinton passed the 12 million vote mark tonight, more votes than anyone in either party. But what's really interesting is that Bernie Sanders is not in second place in total votes. Donald Trump has him beat.

Here are some short observations from tonight's primaries:

  • Trump Routs GOP Challenges: On on the Republican side, the Kasich-Cruz alliance seems to have strengthened Donald Trump's margins, and in a nightmare scenario coming true for the Republican party, Trump seems to be the presumptive nominee of the Republican party.
  • Democratic Primary Margins: Hillary Clinton won the night's biggest prize Pennsylvania by double digits (stands around 13 points as of this writing). She won Maryland by 30 points, which was tonight's second biggest delegate prize. Clinton also had a 20 point win in Delaware. She edged Bernie Sanders in Connecticut as Newtown came in for her by a huge 20-point margin in sound rejection of Sanders' support of the gun lobby. Sanders won Rhode Island by roughly 12 points, but the entire state only awards 24 pledged delegates.
  • Delegates: After tonight, Hillary Clinton is almost 90% of the way to having enough delegates to clinching the nomination. Trump is three-quarters of the way there. On our side, Clinton will come out of tonight with 2,150 or more delegates, Sanders barely 1,350. Math is definitely not feeling the bern.
  • Clinton continued to clean up among people of color. Maryland is the state with the highest portion of black voters outside the south, and in the primary, African Americans slightly outnumbered whites. Maryland was also the state that delivered Clinton the night's biggest blowout margin.
  • Who's Getting Votes: While Bernie tried to screech on polls of the primary electorate used for the general election, Hillary Clinton kept winning votes.
    • In PA, Hillary Clinton got 80,000 more votes than Trump, Bernie Sanders got 100,000 fewer votes than Donald Trump.
    • In MD, Bernie Sanders got barely more votes than Trump, while Clinton got more votes than Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders combined.
    • In DE, Clinton topped Trump's vote total by more than 13,000 votes, while Sanders got about 6,000 fewer votes than Trump.
    • In every single state that voted tonight, Hillary Clinton got more votes than Donald Trump (including in Rhode Island, which she lost to Sanders). In just two states did Sanders accomplish the same.
    • In total popular vote, Hillary Clinton will come out of tonight with well over 12 million votes, Trump with about 10 million, and Sanders will finish in third place with 9 million votes.

Math, and voters, seem to have a clear bias towards Hillary Clinton.



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