It's kind of funny that today there are polls out this morning claiming to show that Romney has closed the gap in Virginia and Florida. It's funny, because it's not true - at least not in Florida. And I'm not the one saying it - Republican strategists are. WPTV ran the following story about a memo they uncovered from a Republican strategist. Spoiler alert: for the Republicans, it's worse than 2008.
In Palm Beach county - the land of the hanging chads from 2000 - Democrats are clobbering Republicans in early voting by a 38-point margin: 60% to 22%. This is devastating, and the Republicans know it. Here is the full memo, as released by WPTV:
The early and absentee turnout is starting to look more troubling.Did someone want to talk about an enthusiasm gap?
As of yesterday, Republicans made up only 22% of early voters and 30% of returned absentee votes.
This is closer to (and worse than) 2008 where we saw 19% EV and 38% of the absentees. 2010 (our blowout year) was 33% of EV and 45% of AB.
Conslusion: The Democrat[ic] turnout machine in the county has been very effective and they are cleaning our clock. Even if Romney wins the state (likely based on polls), the turnout deficit in PBC will affect our local races.
When you are calling or canvassing, remind people how effective our opposition has been and how they must not only get themselves to the polls, but their friends and neighbors as well.
I swear I remember writing something about the pollsters' 'likely voter' models failing to account for President Obama's turnout machine's ability to turn sporadic voters into actual voters.
That's how we are going to win. While Mitt Romney is flailing around lying to everyone about how he's "expanding the field" in Pennsylvania and Minnesota (ahahahahaha), President Obama's ground operation is quietly and methodically getting our voters out to the polls - with greater success this year than in 2008. While Romney is trying to draw the media's attention about how great his campaign is going, our campaign workers are cleaning the Republicans' clock. Their words, not mine.
And this isn't just going on in Florida. It's happening kind of everywhere.
Do I think we got this? Yes, I do. Do I think we can rest? Not a moment before all the polls close everywhere on Tuesday. We need to keep running up these advantages in early voting everywhere between now and Tuesday, and then on Tuesday, we need to bring everyone who's not yet voted by that point to the polls. Don't stop working your behind off. But do believe in this president. Do believe in yourself.