After Washington Post/ABC News put out their poll drastically over-representing GOP and Republican leaning voters, New York Times and CBS News have come up with brand new blunders of their own on their poll released late afternoon yesterday, showing the president at an approval rating of "all time low" 41%. This poll has the most glaring, dumbfounding proof that its sample is rigged staring at you in the very front page of the poll's crosstabs.
In the polling sample, Republican primary voters are 29.8% of all those polled (301 of 1009 total polled). But luckily, we don't have to look at the Times or CBS News to know what the actual turnout of GOP primary voters are as a percentage of the voting age population is, what with actual primaries going on right now and stuff. The actual percentage of voters turning out in GOP primaries as a percentage of the voting age population? 11.5%. So the pollsters nearly triple the representation of GOP primary voters over what the actual voting numbers are.
Now think about this. Who votes in Republican primaries? Uber-right wing conservatives. These are the same group of gems that think that the president is both a Muslim and a member of a radical Christian church. You more than double - nearly triple their proportion in the sample from what their percentages actually are, just what exactly do you expect to happen to the president's numbers from that cooked, rigged sample?
This stunning and blatant rigging of the numbers comes on top of the biases also present in the ABC News/Washington Post poll: this poll too narrows the Democratic-Republican difference to the same level as the ABC news poll (D +4) as opposed to the actual voter registration data showing a much wider spread in favor of Democrats (D +12).
So yes, you can believe this poll if you suspend your disbelief and also believe in the following:
- People who are voting in GOP primaries are nearly a third of the voting age population, even though empirical data shows that they are only slightly over one in 10.
- The actual data showing a big Democratic voter registration edge is simply false and roughly the same number of people identify with each party.
- A boadload of voters will suddenly turn to the beliefs and voting patterns of the far far Right (they will more than double in number, to be exact) in November even though they're not participating in picking the GOP nominee. Or, in the alternative, the voting age population will suddenly shrink but all the wingnuts will still be there.
- Pigs fly. Actually, scratch this one. This one may be more believable than this poll.